Euro 2008 Gambling Guide
A few days ago, a dishonest bookie was giving 1000000:1 odds that England would win Euro 2008. I knew it was impossible, but mathematically there was more chance of winning this than the lottery, so I placed a Euro on it. Don’t laugh, It’s true, there is a higher probability that a couple of teams would be disqualified and hence allow England in, than there is in winning the lotto.
Anyhow, the competition has started so I have lost my Euro, although to be fair the bookie has now raised the odds of England wining to 9000000:1 so maybe I’ll risk another Euro.
After last nights performance Italy’s chances are fast becoming less than England’s, at least England hasn’t lost yet and rumours have it that Russia may be disqualified because they have also qualified for the Asian 2009 finals. The odds of Italy winning aren’t that good yet, so I won’t be betting on them until they lose their next game.
More from Deety’s Word for the Wise can be found here
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11th June - So far my betting has not earned me much therefore I will be applying a more scientific approach. I asked 100 people taken at random. Who will win the Euro 2008, over 90% answered Italy. Now we all know that polls are not 100 percent correct but even allowing for an error rate of 5 percent, these figures state clearly that Italy is going to win.
Note: Data just in indicates that you shouldn’t bet on Italy if you live in one of the other European countries. Here is a breakdown of the surveys carried out in three other European countries.
France:- France to win 89%
Germany;. Germany to win 99%
Greece: Greece to win 95%
Statistically the chances of winning depends on where you place the bet, therefore I recommend travelling to each of these countries and placing a bet.
What a load of cobblers, I took your advice on the Holland/Italy game and lost.
Update: A few people have written in contesting my advice.
Unfortunately the rules of the competition state that only one team can win hence even if my calculations were correct the governing body of the game has wilfully alerted the natural outcome by defining some very un-statistical rules.
The data collected in Holland clearly stated that Holland would win and the data collected in Italy clearly stated that Italy would win.
Statistically there is absolutely no reason why the Italy/Holland match couldn’t have finished with both teams winning. According to my figures, and I am willing to publish the data, Italy should have won 4-3 for those watching in Italy and Holland should have won 3-0 for those watching in Holland. If you were watching in a neutral country then a draw was most likely.
Basically the rules of the competition don’t match reality. I suggest modifying the rules so that odd goals (1,3,5) counted double in your opponents home country and even goals (2,4,6) followed today’s rules. How would this have effected the Holland/Italy Game.
1. Holland scores.
In Holland the goal counts as 1 to holland. (1-0 to Holland)
In Italy the goal counts as 1 goal to Holland and 2 goals to Italy (2.1 to Italy)
2 Hollands second Goal would count as 1 goal to Holland (in both countries).
(2-0 in Holland) ( 2.2) in Italy.
3 Hollands third goal is odd therefore the final score would have been
In Holland (3-0 to Holland)
In Italy ( 4-3 to Italy)
Now, obviously Holland could have drawn in Italy had they been satisfied with a 2-0 win at home.
As you can see, the data states that today’s rules are not in harmony with what people want. Hence I suggest changing them.
Toni’s Toe Job…
It was so breathtaking that I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a phone call from Madonna….